这本书最有价值的地方，首先在于它清晰而精准的战略定位。它明确指出，“十五五” 这五年非同寻常 —— 这是中国迈向第二个百年奋斗目标、基本实现社会主义现代化的 “决胜五年”。这意味着，过去那种随大势 “搭便车”、普遍增长的阶段已经结束，未来五年更需攻坚克难，也将更具决定性。书中通过和 “十四五” 对比，点明了战略重心的转变：从 “把握战略机遇期” 转为应对 “战略机遇和风险挑战并存期”，从全面布局转向关键领域的战略性突破。这种宏观层面的准确分析，为全书的深入探讨奠定了扎实基础。在此基础上，这本书构建了一个系统而全面的分析框架，围绕七大维度展开，几乎涵盖了经济高质量发展的所有核心议题。难得的是，它没有泛泛而谈。书一开始，张军扩就提出了三大 “关键性决定性任务”：提振消费、稳定房地产市场、实现高水平科技自立自强。这三点正好对应了中国经济当前的短期压力（内需不足）、中期挑战（防风险）和长期根本（创新驱动），体现出作者团队深刻的问题意识和现实关怀。这种从宏观到微观、从战略到任务的层层剖析，让本书既有思想高度，又十分接地气。特别值得称赞的是，本书在解释 “新质生产力” 这类战略概念时，把握得非常好。它没有空喊口号，而是把概念放到实际的产业变革中去观察。书中既展望了人工智能、低空经济等未来产业的创新生态，也冷静提醒要 “防止一哄而上、重复建设”，强调各地应立足自身条件，合理设定目标。这种辩证的视角，呼应了中央 “因地制宜发展新质生产力” 的要求，也为各地避免同质化竞争、走适合自己的高质量发展之路提供了理性参考。此外，这本书还有一个鲜明特点，就是始终带着 “民生” 温度。在结尾部分，迟福林强调 “十五五” 时期要贯彻 “民生为大” 的发展理念。这不仅是一种价值回归，更被视作一种发展战略。通过增加居民收入、完善社会保障来稳定社会预期、释放消费潜力，实际上是为经济增长构建可持续的内生动力。这种把人的发展与经济增长紧密相连的逻辑，使得书中的政策建议既坚韧有力，又充满人文关怀。

三大重点任务：一是有效提升消费者消费能力和消费信心，加快形成扩大消费长效机制，持续有效扩大消费需求；二是有效恢复房地产市场信心，释放正常住房需求，加快形成房地产发展新模式，促进房地产市场止跌回稳；三是加快实现更高水平科技自立自强，既加强重大科技攻关，有效解决卡脖子问题，又切实加强我国基础研究，增强前沿创新能力，为更长时期的创新发展奠定基础。专注解决民生问题的十五五。

本书深刻剖析了我国财政政策的转型路径。蔡昉指出，17 年积极财政政策成效显著，但需突破 3% 赤字率约束，转向功能财政，优化债务结构，有效应对人口老龄化、数字经济等新挑战，确保财政可持续性

可以挑着读

相信祖国，相信政府，未来十年希望我们所有人都越来越好！

本书实质是一批宏观经济学家围绕 “十五五” 规划撰写的学术论文合集（或节选）。它并非政策汇编，而是直面规划落地必须解决的问题，从而构建了一个理解中国高质量发展新征程的 “系统性思维框架”。我向来对宏观经济学敬而远之 —— 既因兴趣不在此，也觉其离日常生活颇远。此次阅读，完全是出于多位我所敬重的学者在不同场合的郑重推荐。然而，我收获颇丰：首先，它提供了一份 “战略地形图”，系统性地提升了我的思考维度。其次，有学者以 “微笑曲线” 模型剖析中美博弈，令我耳目一新。 我曾学习该模型，却从未将其置于大国竞争背景下思考。这启发了我：一些我已知的模型或许也能跨界解释新问题。再者，有学者通过辨析 “所有制” 与 “所有权”，从 “管理资本” 的视角探讨国企与城乡改革，提出绝对与相对所有权、管理资本与管理国企等命题。角度之新，令我深思。本书文字直接、论证严谨，但因似为节选，论证过程并不详细，常以结论形式呈现。另一个发现是：不同作者的行文风格差异显著。“在野” 学者往往直抒己见，“在朝” 者则措辞含蓄 —— 或许也难逃 “屁股指挥脑袋” 之律。我不禁怀疑，在那些含蓄的文字之下，是否藏着未曾尽言的真心话。无论如何，本书清晰揭示：“十五五” 的核心课题是在多重目标与约束下寻求动态平衡。科技创新、绿色转型、安全发展、共同富裕等战略，绝非孤立篇章，而是必须协同推进的整体叙事。这要求决策者必须超越局部视角，建立 “动态全局观”。书中对深水区改革（如统一大市场建设、数字经济治理）不回避、不虚饰的探讨，尤为可贵。（由元宝与我共创。）The book is, in essence, a collection (or selection) of academic papers written by a group of macroeconomists centered on the "15th Five-Year Plan." It is not a compilation of policies, but rather confronts the issues that must be resolved for the plan's implementation, thereby constructing a "systematic thinking framework" for understanding China's new journey of high-quality development.I have always kept macroeconomics at a distance—both because my interests lie elsewhere and because it seemed far removed from daily life. Reading this book was entirely due to strong recommendations from several scholars I deeply respect on various formal occasions.However, my gains were substantial:Firstly, it provides a "strategic landscape map," systematically elevating the dimensions of my thinking.Secondly, some scholars used the "Smile Curve" model to analyze China-U.S. strategic competition, which felt refreshingly new to me. I had studied the model before but never considered it within the context of major-power rivalry. This inspired me: some models I already know might also be applied across different domains to explain or solve new problems.Furthermore, by distinguishing between "ownership system" and "ownership rights," scholars explored reforms of state-owned enterprises and urban-rural integration from the perspective of "managing capital," introducing concepts like absolute versus relative ownership and managing capital versus managing SOEs. The novelty of this angle gave me much to ponder.The writing in the book is direct and its arguments rigorous, but likely because it appears to be excerpts, the reasoning processes are not detailed and are often presented as conclusions.Another observation was the noticeable difference in writing styles among the authors. Scholars outside the establishment often state their views candidly, while those within the establishment tend to be more reserved in their wording—perhaps they too cannot avoid the tendency of "where one sits influencing where one stands." I cannot help but suspect that beneath those reserved words may lie thoughts not fully expressed.Regardless, the book clearly reveals that the core challenge of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to seek dynamic balance among multiple objectives and constraints. Strategies like technological innovation, green transition, secure development, and common prosperity are by no means isolated chapters but must be advanced synergistically as an integrated narrative. This requires decision-makers to transcend partial perspectives and establish a "dynamic, holistic view." The book's candid and unvarnished discussion of deep-water reforms—such as building a unified national market and governing the digital economy—is particularly valuable.

好书啊，有很多现实面的东西

作为了解宏观经济政策的资料看一看很有帮助。但对于我这种缺乏相关知识背景的人读起来有些枯燥乏味。

三大重点任务：一是有效提升消费者消费能力和消费信心，加快形成扩大消费长效机制，持续有效扩大消费需求；二是有效恢复房地产市场信心，释放正常住房需求，加快形成房地产发展新模式，促进房地产市场止跌回稳；三是加快实现更高水平科技自立自强，既加强重大科技攻关，有效解决卡脖子问题，又切实加强我国基础研究，增强前沿创新能力，为更长时期的创新发展奠定基础。